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Tom Wojcik’s Sept. 26 report traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure from oil prices and shipping costs to fertilizer supplies, harvests and European fuel access. The report also examines Poland’s exposure to energy and security pressures, though the supplied source text ends before its discussion of Polish heating is complete.
Tom Wojcik’s Sept. 26 report describes how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into higher oil prices, disrupted shipping and risks to food supplies, with consequences reaching Europe and Poland. The account says tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent since March, after Iran closed it amid conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli operations in late February.
The report says a fragile ceasefire briefly pulled oil prices back to pre-war levels in early summer, but broke down. Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, about 19 percent higher than a month earlier, then around $105 by mid-month and $108 on Sept. 24. These figures describe a fast-moving market; the report does not establish how long prices will stay at those levels.
Wojcik says Iran presented Washington with a written proposal on Sept. 22 for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, phased reopening of the strait and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. Washington rejected the proposal, according to the report. It also cites one report that the U.S. president expects bombing to resume after the November midterm elections. The supplied material does not identify that report or provide a response from the White House.
Shipping costs have surged alongside oil. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks crude tanker hiring costs, was up more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September, while some supertanker day rates reached about $860,000 on Sept. 10. The fund’s manager said rates would fall if the strait reopened. Wojcik also describes disruptions elsewhere: Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, U.S. diesel above $6 a gallon for the first time on Sept. 10, and fuel shortages at some French stations.
Fuel Costs Reach Food Supplies
The disruption matters because oil and shipping costs affect more than drivers. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizer, according to the report. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warns that fertilizer scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The effects may emerge after planting decisions and deliveries have already been disrupted.
The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. That is a conditional estimate, not a count of people already affected by this closure. The report places it against a difficult baseline: 2025 was the first year in the history of the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, while food assistance funding fell by an estimated 59 percent from 2022 to 2025.
European agriculture faces its own pressures. The report says potato growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less after a previous year’s glut. Five heatwaves and drought followed; their growers’ organization now expects a harvest down 25 percent. In Belgium, the reported price of potatoes for processing rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
A Polish View of Interconnected Risks
Wojcik frames the report from Poland, which he says borders Europe’s largest war since 1945, relies on coal and imported gas for heating, and is financing its military buildup with borrowed money. His central point is that linked dependencies can transmit shocks: a Gulf conflict affects oil and fertilizer flows, while refinery attacks and shipping constraints add pressure to fuel markets.
The French pump example illustrates how a local policy and limited supply flexibility can interact with higher prices. On Sept. 20, 15 percent of French stations had run out of petrol or diesel, up from 11 percent two days earlier; the share in Grand Est was 20 percent. The French government ruled out a national shortage. About nine in ten stations without fuel belonged to TotalEnergies, which capped petrol at €1.99 a litre. According to Wojcik, drivers seeking lower prices emptied those stations faster than trucks could replenish them. The official tally counted a station only when it had run out of every petrol grade or of diesel.
The supplied report begins to discuss Polish winter heating but ends partway through its account of grain prices. It therefore provides a clear outline of the international links Wojcik sees, but not the full evidence or figures he intended to give for Poland’s heating outlook.
The Winter Heating Picture Is Incomplete
The source text supplied for this article cuts off while discussing the price of milling wheat, leaving the reported figure unfinished. It does not include the rest of Wojcik’s analysis of Poland’s winter heating supply, costs or household exposure. The report’s claims about the ceasefire proposal and possible resumption of bombing also lack primary documents or direct official statements in the supplied material.
Several projections remain conditional. The FAO warning concerns potential effects through late 2026 and 2027, and the World Food Programme figure is an estimate tied to sustained high oil prices. The scale and timing of any harvest losses, food price increases or further fuel shortages cannot be established from the figures given here.
Watch the Strait and Harvests
The immediate indicators in the report are whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, whether diplomatic efforts resume, and how tanker rates and oil prices respond. A change in shipping access could alter fuel and fertilizer flows; the ETF manager cited by Wojcik said tanker rates would fall if the strait reopened.
Over the coming months, fertilizer availability and harvest forecasts will show whether supply disruption translates into lower yields and tighter food markets. For Poland, a fuller assessment requires the missing portion of Wojcik’s report on gas storage, heating and winter costs. The supplied material does not give a date for further negotiations or identify a confirmed next diplomatic meeting.
Key Questions
What happened at the Strait of Hormuz?
Wojcik’s report says Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. It reports tanker traffic down by more than 90 percent.
How could the closure affect food supplies?
The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizer. The FAO warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
Did France run out of fuel?
The French government ruled out a national shortage. On Sept. 20, the report says 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel; many were TotalEnergies stations affected by higher demand at its capped prices.
What does the report say about Poland’s winter heating?
It identifies Poland’s reliance on coal and imported gas, but the supplied source ends before giving the details of its winter heating analysis. The specific outlook and costs remain unclear from the material provided.
Source: hn
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